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Context.Submillimeter galaxies (SMGs) constitute a key population of bright star-forming galaxies at high-redshift. These galaxies challenge galaxy formation models, particularly regarding the reproduction of their observed number counts and redshift distributions. Furthermore, although SMGs contribute significantly to the cosmic star formation rate density (SFRD), their precise role remains uncertain. Upcoming surveys, such as the Ultra Deep Survey with the TolTEC camera, are expected to offer valuable insights into SMG properties and their broader impact in the Universe. Aims.Robust modeling of SMGs in a cosmological representative volume is necessary to investigate their nature in preparation for next-generation submillimeter surveys. Here, we test different parametric models for SMGs in large-volume hydrodynamical simulations, assess their contribution to the SFRD, and build expectations for future submillimeter surveys. Methods.We implement and test parametric relations derived from radiative transfer calculations across three cosmological simulation suites: EAGLE, IllustrisTNG, and FLAMINGO. We place particular emphasis on the FLAMINGO simulations due to their large volume and robust statistical sampling of SMGs. Based on the model that best reproduces observational number counts, we forecast submillimeter fluxes within the simulations, analyze the properties of SMGs, and evaluate their evolution over cosmic time. Results.Our results show that the FLAMINGO simulation reproduces the observed redshift distribution and source number counts of SMGs without requiring a top-heavy initial mass function. On the other hand, the EAGLE and IllustrisTNG simulations show a deficit of bright SMGs. We find that SMGs with S₈₅₀ > 1 mJy contribute up to ∼27% of the cosmic SFRD atz ∼ 2.6 in the FLAMINGO simulation, which is consistent with recent observations. Flux density functions reveal a rise in SMG abundance fromz = 6 toz = 2.5 that is followed by a sharp decline in the number of brighter SMGs fromz = 2.5 toz = 0. Leveraging the SMG population in FLAMINGO, we forecast that the TolTEC UDS will detect ∼80 000 sources over 0.8 deg²at 1.1 mm (at the 4σdetection limit), capturing about 50% of the cosmic SFRD atz ∼ 2.5. 

ABSTRACT In recent years, cosmological hydrodynamical simulations have proven their utility as key interpretative tools in the study of galaxy formation and evolution. In this work, we present a comparative analysis of the baryon cycle in three publicly available, leading cosmological simulation suites: EAGLE, IllustrisTNG, and SIMBA. While these simulations broadly agree in terms of their predictions for the stellar mass content and star formation rates of galaxies at $$z\approx 0$$, they achieve this result for markedly different reasons. In EAGLE and SIMBA, we demonstrate that at low halo masses ($$M_{\rm 200c}\lesssim 10^{11.5}\, \mathrm{M}_{\odot }$$), stellar feedback (SF)-driven outflows can reach far beyond the scale of the halo, extending up to $$2\!-\!3\times R_{\rm 200c}$$. In contrast, in TNG, SF-driven outflows, while stronger at the scale of the interstellar medium, recycle within the circumgalactic medium (within $$R_{\rm 200c}$$). We find that active galactic nucleus (AGN)-driven outflows in SIMBA are notably potent, reaching several times $$R_{\rm 200c}$$ even at halo masses up to $$M_{\rm 200c}\approx 10^{13.5}\, \mathrm{M}_{\odot }$$. In both TNG and EAGLE, AGN feedback can eject gas beyond $$R_{\rm 200c}$$ at this mass scale, but seldom beyond $$2\!-\!3\times R_{\rm 200c}$$. We find that the scale of feedback-driven outflows can be directly linked with the prevention of cosmological inflow, as well as the total baryon fraction of haloes within $$R_{\rm 200c}$$. This work lays the foundation to develop targeted observational tests that can discriminate between feedback scenarios, and inform subgrid feedback models in the next generation of simulations. 

ABSTRACT Recent observations from the EIGER JWST program have measured for the first time the quasar–galaxy cross-correlation function at $$z\approx 6$$. The autocorrelation function of faint $$z\approx 6$$ quasars was also recently estimated. These measurements provide key insights into the properties of quasars and galaxies at high redshift and their relation with the host dark matter haloes. In this work, we interpret these data building upon an empirical quasar population model that has been applied successfully to quasar clustering and demographic measurements at $$z\approx 2\!-\!4$$. We use a new, large-volume N-body simulation with more than a trillion particles, FLAMINGO-10k, to model quasars and galaxies simultaneously. We successfully reproduce observations of $$z\approx 6$$ quasars and galaxies (i.e. their clustering properties and luminosity functions), and infer key quantities such as their luminosity–halo mass relation, the mass function of their host haloes, and their duty cycle/occupation fraction. Our key findings are (i) quasars reside on average in $$\approx 10^{12.5}\, {\rm M}_{\odot }$$ haloes (corresponding to $$\approx 5\sigma$$ fluctuations in the initial conditions of the linear density field), but the distribution of host halo masses is quite broad; (ii) the duty cycle of (UV-bright) quasar activity is relatively low ($$\approx 1~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$$); (iii) galaxies (that are bright in [O iii]) live in much smaller haloes ($$\approx 10^{10.9}\, {\rm M}_{\odot }$$) and have a larger duty cycle (occupation fraction) of $$\approx 13~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$$. Finally, we focus on the inferred properties of quasars and present a homogeneous analysis of their evolution with redshift. The picture that emerges reveals a strong evolution of the host halo mass and duty cycle of quasars at $$z\approx 2\!-\!6$$, and calls for new investigations of the role of quasar activity across cosmic time.